| 论文摘要 |
Wetland as a transition ecosystem between terrestrial and marine ecosystems proved to be more vulnerable to hydrological conditions and climate changes. Global warming had been widely accepted in scientific community. The Great Xing’an Mountains, located in northeast China, has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in the Great Xing’an Mountains will rise by 2–4°C over the next 100 years. This paper predicted the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate condition using RBF (Radial Basic Function) network method. This predication was carried out with 18 environmental variables which reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model prediction results for all three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area in the Great Xing’an Mountains tends to decrease, while higher emission will cause drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 61.94%, 76.88% and 85.75%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. Spatially, wetlands may begin to disappear from sides to center and south to north under climate warming. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the southern hills with flatterrain, and some may occur in the northern hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severely vanishing of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only small area of wetlands may remain in the north of high mountains. |
